Regional Security:

Tripartite talks: reason for optimism in Great Lakes stability

Major highlights

*Regional security much better due to change in Rwanda’s foreign policy
*Current disagreements over negative forces not alarm for war
*DR Congo problem not Nkunda, has legitimate reasons
*Congo army too weak to defeat Nkunda
*MONUC should be reviewed
*Over $6 billion spent on MONUC

At the last Tripartite meeting held in Kampala, Uganda, Ministers of Foreign Affairs and those of Defense from Uganda, DR Congo, Rwanda and Burundi, met to discuss the security crisis in the region. This was at the height of raising tension in the eastern DR Congo in North Kivu, between Congolese army and forces loyal to renegade General Laurent Nkunda. Congo is said to be home to several rebel groups like Rwanda’s Interahamwe (FDRL), Uganda’s Lord Resistance Army (LRA), PRA and ADF, all fighting the Uganda Government.
Sulah Nuwamanya interviewed Mouro de Lourenzo, a Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research and a keen observer of issues related to the Great Lakes Region.
Below are excerpts of his assessment of security situation in the region.
QN. What is your assessment of the tripartite talks sponsored by United States Government?

Laurenzo: These talks have been going on for quite some time in different locations amongst the four countries of Uganda, DR Congo, Burundi and Rwanda. It’s a mechanism which US devised to try to make a contribution to the peace process in the region. This is to make sure that security in the face of this whole thing has a mutual forum where regional leaders could exchange views and try to resolve problems before they generate into a crisis. So, the meeting in Uganda was planned long in advance as one of the regular series of the meetings to resolve security problems in the Great Lakes Region. I think, however, that it was, it’s lucky that it came at this time of the rising tensions in North Kivu of the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo).

Qn. Do you think anything came out of the meeting in Kampala as compared to the previous ones, given the fact that the ministers failed to agree on a number of vital issues like the list of the ‘negative’ forces?

Laurenzo: I think it’s normal that they disagree and there is nothing to be alarmed about. The process exists, it didn’t exist before and it’s a normal political space where these issues can be sorted out. For many months there have been disagreements on who should be on the list of ‘negative’ forces and this should not be seen as a failure and I think in each meeting they make a decimal progress. Countries have different views and so long as disagreements are being resolved in a form like this, there are all reasons for optimism in the region.

Qn. What is your assessment of the general security situation in the Great Lakes region?

Laurenzo: On one level the security situation in the region is much better than it has been for many years. This is I think is largely due to a system in the change of Rwanda’s foreign policy over the last few years. Rwanda has really made a strategic decision to improve the nature of its relationship with all its neighbors, Burundi, Uganda and DR Congo in particular. The quality of Rwanda’s bilateral relationship with those countries is much better than it has been before. I think that decision by Rwanda is a single biggest factor that contributed to a more normal policy in the region. Now you have a situation in North Kivu which has been there for some time and which some people have mistakenly been trying to personalize and make it seem like just one person named General Nkunda. And its like, if you deal with him, the problem will go away and of course it’s a very big mistake. It’s really a deep problem which has been attributed to many wars in DR Congo since 1960s and simply putting one person on the list of ‘negative’ forces or removing him from the scene will not make the problem go away. The DR Congo crisis in north Kivu is the most significant problem in the region right now and its very deep and not about one person.

Qn. DR Congo President Joseph Kabila has openly said that the only solution to the north Kivu problem is to fight General Nkunda other than talk peace. Do you think that’s the most viable solution to the crisis in that part of the world?

Laurenzo: No, I think it’s a mistake for a number of reasons, I don’t think Kabila’s army is strong enough to defeat General Nkunda. Kabila’s army has been getting logistical support from United Nations Mission in DR Congo (MONUC), which I think is a mistake on part of MONUC. Kabila is in a very difficult position because he is surrounded by extremists and in order to make them happy, has to say is going to deal with Nkunda militarily. This is part of what is causing him to develop this very delicate policy but he will fail because by all accounts, his forces are not motivated to get the job well done.
Qn. During the Kampala Tripartite talks, the ministers resolved to call on UN to increase its support to MONUC. What is your assessment of MONUC operations in DR Congo?
Laurenzo: I have some concerns about MONUC as they seem to see their mission nowadays since elections last year, as being essentially for rendering support to the government. They are increasingly willing to take sides and I think that’s very dangerous particularly in the east. So I would urge not just for strengthening MONUC and I think the mission is very necessary. But there is need for a clear political guidance from UN and other major donor countries on what exactly MONUC’s mission is. MONUC’s mission is not and shouldn’t be to intervene on part of Congolese national army. For example, imagine a situation where the Congolese army may engage in some sex scandals or human rights abuses, when they are being supported logistically by MONUC. That’s something that the UN should be concerned about because the action has serious consequences for peace keeping operations in many different countries. MONUC’s reputation has already been heavily damaged by sex scandals, by the issues of gold smuggling by some units. They don’t need to have another stain on their record right now.

Qn. Are you worried that the crisis is likely to worsen, bringing once again the four countries in Congo and causing bloodshed in the region?

Laurenzo: I think that’s much less likely than it was in the past. Again partly because Rwanda’s foreign policy has changed now. Rwanda is not the same country like it was in 1996 and 1998. It has a much larger number of interests in the region and internationally which it would be reluctant to put into jeopardy. The previous military efforts by Rwanda have also weakened the strength of rebel groups, ex-FAR and genocidaires in DR Congo. Nevertheless, the security situation in Congo remains a very serious issue to Rwanda and the region. I don’t think we are going to see a repeat of the kid of wars that rocked the region in 1990s.

Qn. US sponsors the Tripartite talks, what are its interests in the region?

Laurenzo. US, unfortunately doesn’t have significant interests in the Great Lakes Region. That’s why US’s efforts are typically very modest and on a small scale. The tripartite programme which is an initiative of the State Department is an excellent example of the kind of small scale models, not very expensive programmes where US can play a sort of mediating role. It can simply provide a forum for people to speak and coordinate. It saves the US money in long term on humanitarian operations, if the essential dispute can be avoided or kept away in such a narrow forum. I think the US’s interest is to protect the international community investments and MONUC which has now exceeded more than a billion US dollars. The current relative peace in Congo was a hard one, it took a long time and suffering on part of the population. US and the rest of the international community don’t want Congo to slide back into war again. I don’t see any geo-political interest beyond that.

Mr. Sulah Nuwamanya is a journalist in Kigali and the CEO of Rwanda Media holdings whose publication, The Weekly Post, was recently closed by the Rwandan Government for unclear reasons and yet to be made public. Its now over seven months since the closure of the weekly publication after its first edition that recieved a sounding welcome in Kigali.